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Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Federal Reserve leaves key rate unchanged at 2%

The Federal Reserve, navigating treacherous economic waters, decided to leave a key interest rate unchanged, bringing an end to a string of consecutive rate cuts aimed at keeping the country out of a deep recession.
The central bank announced that it was keeping the federal funds rate, the interest rate that banks charge each
other, at 2 per cent, marking the first time in 10 months that the central bank has failed to reduce interest rates at one of its regular meetings.
The Fed is confronted with the twin perils of a possible recession and rising inflation pressures, stemming from this year's surge in oil and food prices.
In a brief statement explaining the decision, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues cited both the threats to growth and rising inflation pressures as problems confronting the economy at the moment.
The statement said that the downside risks to growth "appear to have diminished somewhat" while adding that "the
upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased."
The Fed action was approved on a 9-1 vote with Richard Fisher, president of the Fed's regional bank in Dallas casting a dissenting vote. Fisher preferred an immediate increase in interest rates to fight inflation.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

NDTV REPORT SAYS RBI hikes key rates by 50 bps; loans may become dearer

Challenged by unrelenting inflationary pressures, Reserve Bank on Tuesday announced stringent measures of hiking mandatory cash reserve of the banks and its short-term lending rate to them to suck up an estimated Rs 20,000 crore.
According to analysts the move could make loans dearer for housing, car and personal expenses as also to the industry.
Announcement of hiking cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points and the short-term lending (repo) rate by a similar margin comes close on the heels of RBI Governor Y V Reddy discussing with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P Chidambaram the prevailing inflation scenario.Reflecting the Finance Ministry's view that monetary policy would be the first line of defence against inflation that has surged to a 13-year high of 11.05 per cent, the RBI after intense consultation today pronounced the new measures, part of which would be effected in installments.Inflationary pressures
In a precursor to raising the CRR from 8.25 per cent to 8.75 per cent in two installments beginning July 5 and the repo rate from 8.0 per cent to 8.5 per cent with immediate effect, Reddy had said on Monday that the apex bank would do every thing to ease the inflationary pressures.Expressing concern over rising inflation, RBI said, "Besides oil prices there are some underlying inflationary pressures impacting inflation in India."The Reserve Bank said the move is "somewhat painful" but timely contraction of money supply has to be viewed in the context of new reality of high and volatile energy prices, which is not a temporary phenomenon any longer.India's growth momentum
Justifying the move, the central bank said, "It is important to ensure that generalised instability does not develop and erodes the hard earned gains in terms of both outcomes and positive sentiments on India's growth momentum."
RBI's decision will have an impact on interest rates on various loans as is evident from bankers' reactions. Commenting on the impact of RBI's step, PNB Chairman K C Chakrabarty said prime lending rate could go up by 50 basis points. "All the loans linked to PLR like consumer loans, home loans, personal loans are bound to go up. At the same time, deposit rates would also be increased."HDFC Managing Director Keki Mistry said," if the cost of funding goes up, we will pass on costs to our borrowers." However, IBA Chairman MBN Rao said banks would wait for sometime before increasing home loans.Quantum of rate increase by banks
According to United Bank CMD P K Gupta, banks may have to go in for a hike in interest rates even before the monetary policy, scheduled for next month. However, the quantum of increase will be decided after assessing the situation and the need of the individual bank.
UCO Bank CMD S K Goel said it does not mean increase in rates across the board. "We can adjust our short-term loans by half a per cent."
According to Indian Bank Chairman M S Sundara Rajan, "We have to look at the PLR next. The bank is likely to take a decision on first week of July. Accordingly, deposit rates would also be hiked."Industry chambers fear RBI's step may also harm India's economic growth, particularly manufacturing sector. Ficci said the move would affect the manufacturing sector, which is already facing slackening due to high interest rates. This would also affect overall rate of growth of the economy.
Assocham President Sachin Jindal said despite India Inc asking RBI not to raise the repo and CRR, the apex bank has done it, giving adequate hints interest rates would increase.
Measures seem to have been taken to contain pressures on inflation but India has no option but live with it, he said.Announcing the decision, RBI said, "At this juncture, the overriding priority for monetary policy is to eschew any further intensification of inflationary pressures and to firmly anchor inflation expectations."Managing aggregate demand
RBI further said moderating and managing aggregate demand is a critical element of this approach, so that pressures on prices are not intensified.
The central bank also pointed out that fiscal pressures are emerging due to the possibility of enhanced subsidies on account of food, fertiliser and fuel oil as well as for financing deferred liabilities relating to farm loan waivers.
These have implications for additional pressures on aggregate demand and potential spillover in external sector.
RBI had earlier raised short-term lending rate by 25 basis points to 8 per cent on June 11. This is the second move to tighten money supply ahead of RBI's quarterly review of the monetary policy, scheduled for July 29.

CRR - REPO HIKED BY RBI DUE TO CONTROL INFLATION

RBI moves strongly to fight against rising inflation. It has hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio, or CRR, which is the portion of deposits that banks need to keep as cash with the central bank, by a steep 50 basis points.
This hike will take effect in two stages. First, a 25 basis point hike on July 5, and another 25 basis point hike on July 19. By July 19, CRR will stand at 8.75%.
It has also hiked the repo rate by 50 basis points, which will be effective immediately.
The central bank said there has been a turnaround in production of durables. "Consumption demand seems to be reviving."

The rise in non-oil imports reflects domestic demand pressure, it said. "Aggregate demand pressures are strongly in evidence. The priority now is to eschew the build-up in inflation pressures."

Monday, June 23, 2008

Advance tax figures signal India Inc is in good health

After a string of bad news on the economic front starting with spiraling fuel prices to a double digit rate of inflation, finally there seems to be something for the Finance Minister P Chidambaram to cheer about.
The advance tax payments for the first quarter of 2008-09 are up 27 per cent to Rs 20,700 crore in spite of interest rate pressure.
The banking sector is doing well with ICICI Bank paying in Rs 340 crore and SBI's advance tax increasing 31.8 per cent to Rs 663 crore.
With crude prices reaching for the sky, the upstream oil companies are cashing in with ONGC paying the highest advance tax at Rs 1342 crore and GAIL paying Rs 335 crore.
But all is not well in India Inc just as ONGC is raking in the moolah those who depend on coal and oil are a worried lot.
"No doubt that high oil prices will hit the growth. It is hard to ascertain how much but some sectors will be hit harder," said Prasad Menon, MD, Tata Power.
The metal and mining companies have also put up a good show like Tata Steel which has benefited from a price hike at Corus paying Rs 356 crore in taxes and the National Mineral Development Corporation posting a figure of Rs 400 crore.
But with the Sensex losing over 10 per cent this quarter, the market watchers say the going will get tougher.
All eyes are now focused on the quarterly earnings season, which will send out a clearer signal on the health of corporate India.

Inflation to dent hiring prospects in India

Surging inflation is expected to dent the hiring prospects in India, the country rated as the most optimistic nation for employment globally, industry experts say.
"Due to rising inflation there would be negative impact on financial sector, manufacturing sector and the overall job market," global staffing services firm Manpower India Managing Director Naresh Malhan said.
Moreover, any hike in salaries would not be that much beneficial for employees as the increase would largely be eroded by the rising prices of commonly used items, experts say.
"The country is projected to witness an average increase in salary bills of around 12-13 per cent," global HR services firm HayGroup's Practice Leader Mark Thompson said, adding "if inflation is taken into account, this still represents quite a reduction in the cost of labour in real terms compared to last year."
The wholesale price-based inflation spurted to 11.05 per cent for the week ended June 7. Inflation has risen rapidly by 441 basis points since January 2008.
Manpower in its latest employment outlook survey had rated India as the most optimistic nation for hiring in the world.
Thompson added "high oil prices are here to stay, there will be a big impact on economic growth throughout the world at least until we can adjust to the new regime and adapt to using less oil-based products."
Industry experts believe high crude oil prices and rising inflation levels would reduce growth rates in the country and therefore would lead to less hiring than would otherwise be the case.
The continuous rise in inflation has forced the banks to increase interest rates which analyst feel could further add to cost factor. Most of the banks have the prime lending rates pegged at around 13 per cent.
After peaking at $139.89 per barrel level, oil prices at the New York Mercantile Exchange eased somewhat and were hovering around $134 a barrel.
The global economic slowdown had also a negative impact on hiring prospects. But experts term it as a lesser evil when compared with crude oil prices and inflation.
Though the US is a significant trading partner of India, much of the growth in the country comes from the home market, and this will continue to grow. Furthermore, during recession, the field of business process outsourcing, will be a more compelling for US companies to reduce their costs by exporting work to the sub continent.
Hence, concerns regarding US recession might not be all that bad for India, as economists hold the view that any slowdown in the US economy would reduce India's growth by no more than 1 per cent.

Nifty ends below 4300; CG, power, realty, midcaps worst hit

Markets remained under black clouds; Sensex, Nifty and rate sensitive sectors' indices got beaten down severely. Bears have attacked on capital goods, metal, power, realty, auto, and select oil, pharma and banking stocks. Midcap and small cap stocks were real culprits of the day, which worsened markets breadth in today's session.
Markets had opened sharply lower and witnessed heavy selling pressure since then. In the afternoon session, it shown major recovery of 350 points in Sensex and 100 points in Nifty, but could not able to sustain that for long and again slipped into deep red.
Fall in US markets on Friday was one of the reasons. There is a possibility of rate hike by RBI following higher inflation numbers of 11.05% touched in last week; especially CRR and repo rate. Banks are also likely to raise lending rates. Experts believe that economic growth may see some slowdown and expect rate hike of 50 bps in CRR and 25 bps in repo rate. They also expect that companies may witneses some margin pressure in near term due to risen commodities prices and inflation likely to remain around 11% for few weeks.
The Sensex has recovered nearly 130 points from day's low of 14,163.45 and closed at 14,293.32, down 277.97 points or 1.91%. The Nifty has broken another psychological mark and slipped below 4300 level. It has recovered nearly 41 points from day's low of 4225.50 and ended at 4266.40, down 81.15 points or 1.87%.
Amongst frontliners, Jaiprakash Associates was down -7.95%, Hindalco -7.83%, Unitech -7.20%, Tata Communication -6.80%, L&T -6.53% and Maruti Suzuki -5.43% while ONGC jumped 2.36%, HDFC 1.42%, Wipro 1.14%, Infosys 1.09% and HCL Tech 1.60%.
Today is the day of midcaps and small cap stocks, due to which markets breadth remained very weak through the day. About 512 shares have advanced while 2334 shares declined. Nearly 281 shares remained unchanged. Midcap Index lost 3.60% or 217.20 points to settle at 5,815.23. Small Cap Index plunged 3.53% or 261.36 points at 7,136.30.
Amongst midcap stocks, SREI Infra, UB Holdings, Prakash Ind, Akruti City, HEG, Anant Raj Ind, Sobha Developer, Alstom Projects, Wockhardt, National Fert and Essar Shipping fell over 8%.
In the small cap segment, Apar Ind, Kolte-Patil, Arihant Found, HTMT Global Sol, C and C Const, Welspun India, Lok Housing, Swaraj Mazda, Panchmahal Stee, McDowell Holdg, Sunil HitechEng and English Ind Cla have plunged over 9%.
Capital Goods Index fell 5.29% or 602.78 points at 10,797.01 led by selling in Alstom Projects, Walchandnagar, Greaves Cotton, Punj Lloyd, L&T and BHEL.
Metal stocks like Hindalco, Hind Zinc, NALCO, Jindal Steel, SAIL, Sterlite Ind and Tata Steel have lost shine. Index slid by 671.73 points or 4.62% at 13,856.33.
Power Index slipped 101.86 points or 4.01% at 2,437.98 due to selling in Reliance Power, Suzlon Energy, GVK Power, Tata Power, GMR Infra, Reliance Infra and Torrent Power.
Real estate stocks have tumbled like a pack of card, which includes Akruti City, Anant Raj Ind, Sobha Developers, Unitech, HDIL, Omaxe and DLF. Index fell 195.89 points or 3.64% at 5,187.92.
Pharma Index lost 105.16 points or 2.43% at 4,220.24 on the back of selling in Wockhardt, Ranbaxy Labs, Matrix Labs, Aurobindo Pharma, Pfizer, Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy's Labs.
Bankex also got hammered a lot, crashed by 174.20 points or 2.56% at 6,630.58. Selling pressure has seen in Bank of India, IOB, Allahabad Bank, Bank of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra, Union Bank, SBI, PNB and ICICI Bank.
Oil & Gas Index fell 2.63% or 247.79 points at 9,172.10 due to selling in Essar Oil, Reliance Ind, Petronet LNG, IOC, HPCL and GAIL. Reliance Industries was the main dragger, slipped below Rs 2000 and hit a low of 1,984.05. The stock lost 3.55% or Rs 74.4 to close at 2,022.20. However, ONGC, Cairn India and BPCL were gainers.
FMCG stocks like United Breweries, Dabur India, United Spirits, Godrej Consumer, Britannia and ITC have ended in red. Index plunged 1.41% at 2,202.65.
However, only BSE IT Index gained 0.68% to end at 4,233.42 due to buying in HCL Tech, Wipro, Patni Computer, Infosys, Satyam and Tech Mahindra.
Total turnover traded by the markets stood at Rs 83165.66 crore. This includes Rs 11229.27 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 66917.33 crore from NSE F&O and the balance Rs 5019.06 crore from BSE cash segment.
Most active counters on the bourses were Reliance Industries, L&T, Ranbaxy Labs, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Petroleum.
On the global front, Asian markets ended in negative terrain following weak US cues. Nikkei was down -0.6%, Shanghai Composite -2.5%, Hang Seng -0.13%, Kospi -0.89%, Straits Times -0.75% and Taiwan Weighted -0.33%. European markets were trading marginally in green, at the time of writing market report. FTSE 100 was up 0.53%, CAC 0.3% and DAX 0.4%.
Markets Snapshot Markets slide on back of weak global cues from US market, rising crude prices Nifty closes below 4,300 for 1st time since Aug 24, '07 Sensex ends down 278 pts at 14293.3; recovers nearly 130 pts from days low Nifty ends down 81 pts at 4266.4; recovers nearly 40 pts from days low Nifty takes support at 4225; faces resistance at 4320 during the day Sell-off witnessed in broader marets; CNX Midcap Index down 4%, BSE Small-cap Index down 3.5% RIL ends down down 3.5% at 2025.7; slips below 2000 during the day Cap Goods under pressure; index down 5.3%; L&T down 6.5%, ABB down 4%, BHEL down 3.2% Index losers; HIndalco down 8%, Unitech down 7.2%, Tata Comm down 6.8%, Suzlon down 6.5% Index gainers; ONGC, HDFC up nearly 2%, HCL Tech up 1.5%, Wipro, Infy, Satyam up nearly 1% Losers; GHCL down 10%, BOI down 9.3%, Rel Cap down 9%, Ibulls Fin down 8%, JP Associates down 7.5% NSE Advanve Decline at 1:10 Total market turnover at Rs 83165 cr Vs Rs 85088 cr on Friday F&O turnover at Rs 66917 cr Vs Rs 58533 cr on Friday

Nifty ends below 4300; CG, power, realty, midcaps worst hit

Markets remained under black clouds; Sensex, Nifty and rate sensitive sectors' indices got beaten down severely. Bears have attacked on capital goods, metal, power, realty, auto, and select oil, pharma and banking stocks. Midcap and small cap stocks were real culprits of the day, which worsened markets breadth in today's session.
Markets had opened sharply lower and witnessed heavy selling pressure since then. In the afternoon session, it shown major recovery of 350 points in Sensex and 100 points in Nifty, but could not able to sustain that for long and again slipped into deep red.
Fall in US markets on Friday was one of the reasons. There is a possibility of rate hike by RBI following higher inflation numbers of 11.05% touched in last week; especially CRR and repo rate. Banks are also likely to raise lending rates. Experts believe that economic growth may see some slowdown and expect rate hike of 50 bps in CRR and 25 bps in repo rate. They also expect that companies may witneses some margin pressure in near term due to risen commodities prices and inflation likely to remain around 11% for few weeks.
The Sensex has recovered nearly 130 points from day's low of 14,163.45 and closed at 14,293.32, down 277.97 points or 1.91%. The Nifty has broken another psychological mark and slipped below 4300 level. It has recovered nearly 41 points from day's low of 4225.50 and ended at 4266.40, down 81.15 points or 1.87%.
Amongst frontliners, Jaiprakash Associates was down -7.95%, Hindalco -7.83%, Unitech -7.20%, Tata Communication -6.80%, L&T -6.53% and Maruti Suzuki -5.43% while ONGC jumped 2.36%, HDFC 1.42%, Wipro 1.14%, Infosys 1.09% and HCL Tech 1.60%.
Today is the day of midcaps and small cap stocks, due to which markets breadth remained very weak through the day. About 512 shares have advanced while 2334 shares declined. Nearly 281 shares remained unchanged. Midcap Index lost 3.60% or 217.20 points to settle at 5,815.23. Small Cap Index plunged 3.53% or 261.36 points at 7,136.30.
Amongst midcap stocks, SREI Infra, UB Holdings, Prakash Ind, Akruti City, HEG, Anant Raj Ind, Sobha Developer, Alstom Projects, Wockhardt, National Fert and Essar Shipping fell over 8%.
In the small cap segment, Apar Ind, Kolte-Patil, Arihant Found, HTMT Global Sol, C and C Const, Welspun India, Lok Housing, Swaraj Mazda, Panchmahal Stee, McDowell Holdg, Sunil HitechEng and English Ind Cla have plunged over 9%.
Capital Goods Index fell 5.29% or 602.78 points at 10,797.01 led by selling in Alstom Projects, Walchandnagar, Greaves Cotton, Punj Lloyd, L&T and BHEL.
Metal stocks like Hindalco, Hind Zinc, NALCO, Jindal Steel, SAIL, Sterlite Ind and Tata Steel have lost shine. Index slid by 671.73 points or 4.62% at 13,856.33.
Power Index slipped 101.86 points or 4.01% at 2,437.98 due to selling in Reliance Power, Suzlon Energy, GVK Power, Tata Power, GMR Infra, Reliance Infra and Torrent Power.
Real estate stocks have tumbled like a pack of card, which includes Akruti City, Anant Raj Ind, Sobha Developers, Unitech, HDIL, Omaxe and DLF. Index fell 195.89 points or 3.64% at 5,187.92.
Pharma Index lost 105.16 points or 2.43% at 4,220.24 on the back of selling in Wockhardt, Ranbaxy Labs, Matrix Labs, Aurobindo Pharma, Pfizer, Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy's Labs.
Bankex also got hammered a lot, crashed by 174.20 points or 2.56% at 6,630.58. Selling pressure has seen in Bank of India, IOB, Allahabad Bank, Bank of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra, Union Bank, SBI, PNB and ICICI Bank.
Oil & Gas Index fell 2.63% or 247.79 points at 9,172.10 due to selling in Essar Oil, Reliance Ind, Petronet LNG, IOC, HPCL and GAIL. Reliance Industries was the main dragger, slipped below Rs 2000 and hit a low of 1,984.05. The stock lost 3.55% or Rs 74.4 to close at 2,022.20. However, ONGC, Cairn India and BPCL were gainers.
FMCG stocks like United Breweries, Dabur India, United Spirits, Godrej Consumer, Britannia and ITC have ended in red. Index plunged 1.41% at 2,202.65.
However, only BSE IT Index gained 0.68% to end at 4,233.42 due to buying in HCL Tech, Wipro, Patni Computer, Infosys, Satyam and Tech Mahindra.
Total turnover traded by the markets stood at Rs 83165.66 crore. This includes Rs 11229.27 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 66917.33 crore from NSE F&O and the balance Rs 5019.06 crore from BSE cash segment.
Most active counters on the bourses were Reliance Industries, L&T, Ranbaxy Labs, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Petroleum.
On the global front, Asian markets ended in negative terrain following weak US cues. Nikkei was down -0.6%, Shanghai Composite -2.5%, Hang Seng -0.13%, Kospi -0.89%, Straits Times -0.75% and Taiwan Weighted -0.33%. European markets were trading marginally in green, at the time of writing market report. FTSE 100 was up 0.53%, CAC 0.3% and DAX 0.4%.
Markets Snapshot Markets slide on back of weak global cues from US market, rising crude prices Nifty closes below 4,300 for 1st time since Aug 24, '07 Sensex ends down 278 pts at 14293.3; recovers nearly 130 pts from days low Nifty ends down 81 pts at 4266.4; recovers nearly 40 pts from days low Nifty takes support at 4225; faces resistance at 4320 during the day Sell-off witnessed in broader marets; CNX Midcap Index down 4%, BSE Small-cap Index down 3.5% RIL ends down down 3.5% at 2025.7; slips below 2000 during the day Cap Goods under pressure; index down 5.3%; L&T down 6.5%, ABB down 4%, BHEL down 3.2% Index losers; HIndalco down 8%, Unitech down 7.2%, Tata Comm down 6.8%, Suzlon down 6.5% Index gainers; ONGC, HDFC up nearly 2%, HCL Tech up 1.5%, Wipro, Infy, Satyam up nearly 1% Losers; GHCL down 10%, BOI down 9.3%, Rel Cap down 9%, Ibulls Fin down 8%, JP Associates down 7.5% NSE Advanve Decline at 1:10 Total market turnover at Rs 83165 cr Vs Rs 85088 cr on Friday F&O turnover at Rs 66917 cr Vs Rs 58533 cr on Friday